H1b 2018 lottery predictions - H1b lottery completed!

USCIS will begin accepting petitions for the H1b visa 2018 season by April 1st 2017. We track the Labor Condition Application (LCA) data from the Department of Labor (DOL). Data already indicates that this year is going to be another high demand year and hence a H1b lottery. Here are the important details.

Table Of Contents

H1b 2018 lottery updates

May 3rd

USCIS announced data entry is completed for the lottery. USCIS will start returning the petitions not selected in the lottery. However, USCIS also indicated it’s still sending out recipts for those who are selected in the lottery. So, that means there are still people who do not know the results one way or the other. They have to unfortunately continue to wait.

April 17th

Much anticipated President Trump H1b executive order arrived. This year’s lottery or the H1b process are most likely not impacted.

April 11th

USCIS announced that the lottery has been performed for the new H1b application on April 11th.

April 7th

USICS announced H1b 2018 cap reached. Unlike last year no mention of lottery or actual numbers. And the announcement seems to have come sooner compared to previous years!

For those of you who have received your brand new H1b receipt number, congrats! for being selected in the lottery. Others, don’t loose hope as USCIS is still actively mailing out receipts.

Here is the summary of activities expected from USCIS,

USCIS Activity What it means 2017 2016
Check encashing USCIS begins encashing the check (H1b fees) for petitions    
selected in the lottery Check encashments are reported    
H1b receipts USCIS starts sending H1b receipt number for candidates selected in the lottery H1b receipts are reported  
Data Entry USCIS completes data entry of lottery selected petitions. At this time USCIS starts returning un-selected petitions May 3, 2017 May 2, 2016
Petition return USCIS completes returning all the un-selected petitions ?? July 8, 2016

H1b 2018 cap

General cap: 65,000; Advanced Degree cap: 20,000

Students who studied in the U.S. (Masters degree and above) are eligible for the 20,000 master’s cap. Everybody else will be qualified for the general 65,000 category.

H1b 2018 predictions

For the last 3 years there has been an overwhelming demand for the 85,000 visas slots available. Filing LCA is the first step before applying for the H1b. Hence, tracking LCA data can give insight into the number of expected H1b petitions for the cap. LCA data indicates strong start to this year’s season and compares to the last 2 years. USCIS 2018 H1b lottery is inevitable. The question is what are the odds of getting selected in the lottery? The higher the demand, the lesser the chances. That one is obvious. So, without further ado here is what we think. LCA data upto this point indicates,

Around 230,000 new H1b petitions can be expected this year. So approximately, 3 out of every 5 H1b applicants will be rejected

Following is the tracked LCA data (updated frequently),

Applications 2016 2017 2018 2018 estimation
Total H1b petitions 230,000 236,000 ?? 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 3rd 54,995 53,322 54,706 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 7 63,159 63,128 64,693 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 11 82,932 91,780 82,013 Around 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 15 96,392 96,264 97,116 Around 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 17 122,915 134,928 126,812 Around 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 21 130,926 139,504 135,257 Around 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 23 142,254 150,134 162,535 Around 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 25 167,882 170,266 186,181 Around 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 28 182,496 188,775 195,146 Around 230,000
Number of LCA decisions made as of March 31 196,046 205,897 215,900 Around 240,000

2015 and 2016 H1b lottery involved 230,000 and 236,000 petitions respectively. The above graph compares the LCAs decisions announced by DOL by March 3rd of the respective years. As you can see above, 2018 LCAs are roughly inline with the last 2 years. Hence, if the 2018 numbers continue to trend like the last 2 years, the projection for final H1b petitions is around 230,000 petitions. As more data becomes available in the upcoming weeks, the projections might change.

This season is different from the last years because of the new president Trump. H1b also took a center stage during the campaign. So, the future of H1b program is uncertain. Already may bills are in the works in Congress. Economy in general has been robust and unemployment rates at the lowest. Given all these, employers may want to take one last swing at the available opportunity. That may lead to increased H1b demand this year.

But, on the other hand, with H1b under lots of scrutiny, H1b sponsoring employers may choose to play a wait and watch game. Traditionally, the so called outsourcing companies have depended on the H1b visas. They may tweak their business model to rely less on H1b visas. We are already seeing signs of it. Last month, a top executive of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) a top H1b consumer indicated that they are preparing to operate in a visa constrained environment. He also revealed that TCS already reduced their H1b petitions even last year.

So there are strong reasons for the demand to go either ways. But the LCA data that we track doesn’t seem to indicate any these new circumstances. So it may be business as usual. Or things may change as we go deeper into March. So, we will continue to monitor and update the pages as and when we get new data. So, keep an eye on this page.

Notes:
  • Single LCA may be used to apply for multiple H1b petitions. For the purposes of the prediction, that data is not included
  • For simplicity, prediction doesn’t separate out the lotteries for master’s and general cap

In the last few years the cap is reached within the first week. Before that it has taken longer time of reach the cap. In those years there will not be a H1b lottery. Typically a random lottery is held by USCIS if the cap is reached within the first week. Here is more historical details about the petitions and time it took to reach the cap,

Disclaimer: Efforts are made to ensure the accuracy of data used. But this website is not responsible for any descrepancies or any impacts arising out of them.

H1b-lottery

H1b visa 2018 lottery date

In the past years USCIS accepts H1b visa petitions for the first week. At the end of the first week, USCIS stops accepting any new visa petitions. USCIS also announces the number of petitions received and proceeds to perform a randomized computer lottery. The lottery has happened in the second week of April. This year also, it will be the similiar. Here are the lottery dates in the past,

Year Date
2014 April 10, 2014
2015 April 13, 2015
2016 April 9, 2016
2017 April 13 - 17, 2017 (estimated)

Little bit about the lottery process if you are new to the game. If the number of petitions received by USCIS exceeds the 20,000 cap then all those petitions are included in random lottery just for the 20,000 cap. Those who did not get selected in that lottery is then grouped with rest of the applications for the lottery for the next 65,000 visas. So, Masters students get 2 chances.

Either ways, first week of April is important deadline and the petitions from the employers have to reach USCIS by then. Otherwise, the petitions will not be included for the H1b lottery.

USCIS rejects and returns the petitions that are not selected in the lottery along with the H1b fee paid.

H1b 2018 updates

  • 3/7/2017 : LCA data updated as of March 7th. Trend still seems to be inline with last 2 years. Eventhough 2018 seems a slight increase we have to see if it becomes a trend in the next few days

  • 3/4/2017 : USCIS [suspended premium processing of H1b applications] (https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-will-temporarily-suspend-premium-processing-all-h-1b-petitions) USCIS reasons that it is to clear the long pending H1b extensions, amendments etc. This also means new H1b petitions for the FY 2018 H1b cap cannot be applied in premium processing. This may be minore inconvenience if you were planning to apply in premium. It could also be an indication that USCIS is expecting lots of new H1b petitions. Hence this suspension of premium processing for 6 months could be part of the plan to handle the load.

  • 3/4/2017 : Another new H1b reform bill was introduced. This bill is just in early stages, and hence this year H1b will not be affected.
  • 3/3/2017 : Latest LCA are updated and H1b lottery projections updated

H1b 2018 and Trump

Summary: Nothing to worry this year. H1b is under news for the last 2 years, primarily fueled by the election year. Specially, since President Trump took over the administration there has been significant attention on the H1b visa program. There has been flurry of bills introduced in congress this year. But the bills are in early stages and they have to undergo a long process before it becomes a bill.

Here is a quick summary of the bills introduced so far,

Minimum $130,000 salary
  • This bill as not as bad as it is made to look like.
  • Minimum $130,000 salary is not for everyone, but only for H1b dependent employers. H1b dependent employers are the ones who have at least 15% of their work force on H1b.
  • Even for the H1b dependent employers, it’s not the end of the world, employers have to file additional paper work to hire people less than the $130,000.

Minimum $100,000 salary bill

  • This bill proposes to increase the minimum salary of H1b positions to $100,000 a year. It’s not clear if the minimum salary will be adjusted according to the location

Stricter H1b and L1 visa bill

  • This bill proposes to redefine the qualifications for the H1b and L1 visa programs. This bills aims to put in place checks and balances so that it rewards candidates with better education, high skills and high salary.

Trump’s executive orders.

There were rumors that President Trump will issue an executive order around the H1b program. However, in the recent weeks the rumors have died down. Recently in his speech in Congress, he called for introducing a Merit based immigration program. But not much details are available about it and it can take many years to put in place. More importantly for such total sweep of the program, Congress has to act. President cannot act unilaterally to achieve this.

Efforts from India

India has been traditionally a high user of the H1b visa program. So, with all the news going around about H1b, India has naturally initiated diplomatic contacts with the U.S. around the program. The out come of it will not be known until later.

The bottom line is that all these bills are not going to affect this years H1b. This is going to be another high demand year.

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